Self-learning predictions for Politics, Economics, Awards & More
Cached (343m ago)The Event Oracle is a self-learning prediction system that analyzes prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and compares crowd-sourced odds with our algorithmic predictions. We use weighted factors specific to each category (politics, economics, awards, weather) to find potential edges.
Every prediction is logged with its factor breakdown. When markets resolve, we compare our Oracle's prediction to the actual outcome. Factors that consistently predict correctly get higher weights; factors that underperform get reduced weights. The system automatically adjusts every few hours.
Strong Signal (7%+ difference): Oracle significantly disagrees with market - potential major mispricing. Opportunity (3-7%): Moderate disagreement worth watching. Aligned (<3%): Oracle agrees with market consensus.
We pull real-time odds from Polymarket (decentralized prediction market) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Our Oracle adds analysis on top using category-specific factors like polls, economic data, critic reviews, and weather models.