Event Oracle - Prediction Market Analysis | Politics, Economics, Awards

🌦️ Weather Strong Signal

What will happen before GTA VI?

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Market Says

60.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

47.5%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 12.5% lower than market

Factor Analysis

Satellite Data ↓ 3.8%

Historical ↑ 2.0%

News Alerts ↓ 3.8%

Expert Models ↓ 6.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

🏛️ Politics Strong Signal

Trump cabinet member out by...?

Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?

Market Says

36.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

47.2%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 11.2% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Polls ↑ 7.5%

News Sentiment ↓ 1.2%

Social Buzz ↑ 7.5%

Historical ↓ 2.6%

Trade on Polymarket →

🏛️ Politics Strong Signal

What will happen before GTA VI?

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Market Says

50.5%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

59.8%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 9.3% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Polls ↑ 6.4%

News Sentiment ↑ 1.2%

Social Buzz ↑ 6.7%

Historical ↓ 5.0%

Trade on Polymarket →

🏛️ Politics Strong Signal

Trump cabinet member out by...?

Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?

Market Says

67.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

74.1%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 7.1% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Polls ↑ 6.4%

News Sentiment ↓ 1.8%

Social Buzz ↑ 7.5%

Historical ↓ 5.0%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Opportunity

NFL Protector of the Year

Will Trent Williams win the NFL Protector of the Year?

Market Says

49.8%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

54.5%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 4.7% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 4.7%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Opportunity

Harvey Weinstein prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Market Says

55.8%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

60.2%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 4.5% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 4.5%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Opportunity

NFC Champion

Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?

Market Says

42.9%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

46.6%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 3.8% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 3.8%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Opportunity

Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

Market Says

44.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

47.3%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 3.3% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 3.3%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Opportunity

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Market Says

54.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

57.1%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 3.1% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 3.1%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Market Says

51.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

53.9%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.9% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

Senator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child?

Market Says

64.3%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

67.2%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.9% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

What will happen before GTA VI?

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Market Says

48.5%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

51.4%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.9% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

What will happen before GTA VI?

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Market Says

51.5%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

54.4%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.9% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

What will happen before GTA VI?

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Market Says

48.5%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

51.4%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.9% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.9%

Trade on Polymarket →

📈 Other Aligned

NFC Champion

Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?

Market Says

35.0%

Polymarket

Oracle Says

37.5%

Algorithmic Oracle

Oracle is 2.5% higher than market

Factor Analysis

Analysis ↑ 2.5%

Trade on Polymarket →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Event Oracle?

The Event Oracle is a self-learning prediction system that analyzes prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and compares crowd-sourced odds with our algorithmic predictions. We use weighted factors specific to each category (politics, economics, awards, weather) to find potential edges.

How does the self-learning work?

Every prediction is logged with its factor breakdown. When markets resolve, we compare our Oracle's prediction to the actual outcome. Factors that consistently predict correctly get higher weights; factors that underperform get reduced weights. The system automatically adjusts every few hours.

What do the signals mean?

Strong Signal (7%+ difference): Oracle significantly disagrees with market - potential major mispricing. Opportunity (3-7%): Moderate disagreement worth watching. Aligned (<3%): Oracle agrees with market consensus.

Where does the data come from?

We pull real-time odds from Polymarket (decentralized prediction market) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Our Oracle adds analysis on top using category-specific factors like polls, economic data, critic reviews, and weather models.