The 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship is set: #1 Indiana (15-0) vs #10 Miami (13-2). Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
This is a game of historic firsts. Indiana is trying to become just the third team ever to finish 16-0. Miami is playing for a national championship on their home field - the first team to do so in the modern CFP era.
The Betting Lines
| Category | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana -8.5 |
| Moneyline | Indiana -340 / Miami +270 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 - 48.5 points |
The line opened at Indiana -7.5 after the semifinals and has climbed to -8.5 as public money heavily backs the Hoosiers.
Indiana Hoosiers (15-0)
The Hoosiers are having a season for the ages:
- First undefeated regular season in program history
- Big Ten Champions for the first time since 1967 (defeated Ohio State)
- Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza: 73% completion, 3,349 yards, 41 TDs, 6 INTs
- Playoff dominance: Beat Alabama 38-3 (Rose Bowl), Oregon 56-22 (Peach Bowl)
- 10-5 ATS this season (+4.5 units)
Indiana led Oregon 35-7 at halftime in the semifinal. This offense is firing on all cylinders.
Miami Hurricanes (13-2)
The Canes are the ultimate Cinderella story:
- 7-game winning streak entering the title game
- Upset city: Beat #7 Texas A&M (10-3), defending champ #2 Ohio State (24-14), #6 Ole Miss (31-27)
- Home-field advantage: Playing at Hard Rock Stadium - their actual home
- Championship pedigree: Seeking 6th national title, first since 2001
- Coach Mario Cristobal won two titles as a Miami player (1989, 1991)
- 9-5 ATS this season
Miami's semifinal against Ole Miss came down to a last-second touchdown. QB Carson Beck has been clutch when it matters most.
What the Models Say
- ESPN FPI: Indiana by 4.9 points, 68% win probability
- BetMGM Model: Indiana wins (73% confidence), but Miami covers the spread (73.1% confidence)
- SportsLine (10,000 simulations): Leans OVER on total, one side covers "well over 50%" of simulations
Key Matchup: Mendoza vs. Miami's Defense
Fernando Mendoza has been surgical this postseason. But Miami's defense has been battle-tested against elite competition. The Canes held Ohio State - last year's champion - to just 14 points.
The Home-Field Factor
This is unprecedented. Miami is essentially playing a home game in the national championship. Hard Rock Stadium will be packed with Hurricanes fans. That energy could be worth 3+ points in a close game.
Our Take
Indiana is the better team on paper. But laying 8.5 points against a motivated Miami squad playing at home feels like too much. The models suggest this game is closer to a 5-point spread.
If you're betting, watch the line movement. Sharp money may come in on Miami closer to kickoff.
Get CFB Predictions: Our CFB Oracle uses algorithmic analysis for every college football game. Check our confidence ratings before Monday night.
How to Watch
- Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET (kickoff ~7:45-7:50 PM)
- TV: ESPN (Megacast on ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNews, ESPN Deportes)
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Pregame: College GameDay starts at 5 PM ET