The 12-team College Football Playoff is back for its second year, and the bracket has delivered surprises that create real betting opportunities. Undefeated Indiana sits as the #1 seed after stunning Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship - a result that has reshaped the entire betting landscape.
The 2025-26 Bracket
Here's how the 12-team field shakes out:
- First-Round Byes: #1 Indiana (13-0), #2 Ohio State (12-1), #3 Georgia (12-1), #4 Texas Tech (12-1)
- First Round (Dec 19-20): Seeds 5-12 battle at campus sites
- Quarterfinals (Dec 31 - Jan 1): Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl
- Championship: January 19, 2026 in Miami
First Round Matchups: December 19-20
Here are the four first-round games and what our algorithmic analysis reveals:
- #8 Oklahoma vs #9 Alabama (Fri Dec 19, 8 PM ET): SEC rivals clash in a rematch of October's thriller. Alabama's offense averages 35.2 PPG but Oklahoma's home crowd adds a 3-point edge
- #7 Texas A&M vs #10 Miami (Sat Dec 20, 12 PM ET): Miami's high-powered offense faces Texas A&M's stout defense. Weather in College Station could favor the ground game
- #6 Ole Miss vs #11 Tulane (Sat Dec 20, 3:30 PM ET): Tulane's Cinderella run continues, but Ole Miss is a 14-point favorite at home
- #5 Oregon vs #12 James Madison (Sat Dec 20, 7:30 PM ET): James Madison's first CFP appearance - Oregon's experience advantage is massive
What We Learned from Year One
Last year's inaugural 12-team playoff taught us valuable lessons that apply to betting this year:
- Home-field advantage is real: All four higher seeds won their first-round games in 2024-25. Campus atmospheres delivered the edge
- Bye week rust is overblown: Top seeds dominated in the quarterfinals after their rest
- Underdogs can cover: Even in losses, lower seeds kept games closer than spreads suggested
The Indiana Factor
Indiana being the #1 seed is the story of this playoff. The Hoosiers are 13-0 for the first time in program history, but betting markets still favor Ohio State (+175) over Indiana (+500) to win the championship. This perception gap - undefeated #1 seed being less favored than a team they just beat - creates potential value opportunities.
Algorithmic Edge: What the Data Shows
Our models weight several factors that casual bettors often miss:
- Point differential: Georgia leads all playoff teams at +218 on the season - a stronger predictor than record alone
- Strength of schedule: Ohio State's remaining path through the bracket could be the toughest
- Motivation metrics: First-time playoff teams like James Madison and Tulane have nothing to lose
How to Use This Information
Our CFB Oracle incorporates these factors into every prediction: home-field advantage, weather conditions, rest days, and historical performance metrics. Check our college football predictions page for data-driven picks on every playoff matchup.
Disclaimer
Playoff betting involves elevated stakes and emotions. All predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Always bet responsibly and never wager more than you can afford to lose.