The 2026 NCAA Tournament is less than a month away. Selection Sunday is March 15, with the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on April 4-6. The bracket is starting to take shape, and sharp bettors are already finding value.
Track prediction market odds for March Madness on our Event Oracle - we aggregate data from Kalshi and Polymarket in one place.
Projected 1-Seeds (as of February 19, 2026)
| Seed | Team | Conference | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan | Big Ten | +375 to +450 |
| #1 | Arizona | Big 12 | +450 to +500 |
| #1 | Duke | ACC | +600 to +1000 |
| #1 | UConn | Big East | +1200 |
Best Value Bets Right Now
Michigan (+375 to +450) - The Clear Favorite
The Wolverines have just one loss all season, 24 wins (20 by double digits), and are 5-0 against ranked opponents. They top nearly every analytical rating system. At BetMGM, Michigan holds 11.5% of all championship tickets. Lock this in now if you like Michigan - these odds will shorten by Selection Sunday.
Houston (+900 to +1200) - Best Value on the Board
The Cougars are on an 11-game win streak with elite defense led by Joseph Tugler. They came within one possession of the title last year. Houston offers the best risk-reward ratio of any contender at current prices.
Florida (+1400) - Defending Champions
Never count out the defending champs. Florida won it all in 2025 and still has the championship DNA and coaching pedigree. At 14-to-1, there is value on a team that knows how to win in March.
Trade March Madness on Prediction Markets
Want to bet on who wins the NCAA Tournament without a sportsbook? Kalshi lets you trade on March Madness outcomes - legal in all 50 states as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Compare odds across platforms with our Event Oracle.
Projected 2-Seeds and Dark Horses
- Illinois - Big Ten depth makes them dangerous in a bracket
- Iowa State - Defensive identity travels well in tournament settings
- Nebraska - Historic season for the program, riding momentum
- Purdue - Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn provide experience
Conference Breakdown: Who Gets the Most Bids?
The Big Ten is projected to receive 10 tournament bids - the most of any conference. That depth means potential upsets in the early rounds as Big Ten teams know each other well.
- Big Ten: 10 projected bids (Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA)
- Big 12: 7-8 projected bids (Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati)
- SEC: 6-7 projected bids (Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
- ACC: 4-5 projected bids (Duke, Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest)
Key Dates to Remember
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| March 15 | Selection Sunday (6 PM ET, CBS) |
| March 17-18 | First Four |
| March 19-20 | Round of 64 |
| March 21-22 | Round of 32 |
| April 4 | Final Four (Indianapolis) |
| April 6 | National Championship (8:30 PM ET, TBS) |
Betting Strategy for March Madness
- Lock in futures NOW - Odds shorten as the tournament approaches
- Watch the bubble teams - Teams fighting for their tournament lives play with desperation
- Track injuries in conference tournaments - March conference tournaments reveal who is healthy
- Fade public favorites in early rounds - The public overvalues name brands; data-driven analysis finds the real edges
Use our Parlay Calculator to build your March Madness bets, and check our College Basketball Oracle for algorithmic predictions throughout the tournament.
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