Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season will go down as one of the most consequential in league history. Eight teams clinched playoff spots in a single week, the Chiefs were officially eliminated from postseason contention for the first time in a decade, and the playoff picture finally came into focus with just two weeks remaining.
Our algorithmic power rankings, based on neutral-field DVOA simulation data, reveal some surprising truths about which teams are actually the best - and where the betting value lies heading into the postseason.
The Week 16 Clinching Spree
Monday Night Football delivered the knockout blow. When the Jaguars defeated the Colts, it triggered a cascade of clinches:
- Bills, Jaguars, Chargers (AFC): All three clinched after Indianapolis fell to 8-8
- 49ers, Rams (NFC): Secured wild card spots in the loaded NFC West
- Broncos, Patriots (AFC): Already clinched with 12-3 records
- Seahawks, Eagles, Bears (NFC): Division leaders locked in
That's 10 teams now playoff-bound with just 4 spots remaining (2 AFC, 2 NFC).
Our Power Rankings: What DVOA Reveals
Our rankings use Weighted DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rather than simple win-loss records. This opponent-adjusted metric reveals teams that are better or worse than their records suggest.
Top 5 Teams by DVOA
| Rank | Team | Record | DVOA | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-3 | +45.1% | +12.8 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 11-4 | +44.8% | +14.1 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 8-7 | +28.4% | +4.6 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 10-5 | +20.1% | +9.0 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 12-3 | +19.0% | +2.6 |
Key Insight: The Seahawks and Rams are the two best teams in football by DVOA, both in the same division. The NFC West will likely produce the Super Bowl champion.
The Chiefs Dynasty Is Over
Kansas City at 6-9 is now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. But here's the fascinating part: their DVOA (+10.7%) still ranks 10th in the NFL. The Chiefs are better than their record suggests - they've lost an extraordinary number of close games. But in a sport where you need wins to make the playoffs, efficiency metrics don't matter.
This is a critical lesson for bettors: the Chiefs could be a dangerous team to bet against in their remaining games, even with nothing to play for.
Indianapolis: The Biggest Fall
The Colts dropped from #4 in our rankings last week to #8 after their Monday night loss. More importantly, they fell from 45% playoff probability to 0% - officially eliminated.
Their DVOA (+15.0%) and SRS (+4.0) suggest a playoff-caliber team, but their 8-8 record in a loaded AFC tells a different story. Another case of a team playing just well enough to lose close games.
The Bubble Teams: Who's Still Alive?
AFC (2 spots remaining):
- Steelers (9-6, 95%): Control their destiny in the AFC North
- Texans (10-5, 95%): Lead the AFC South but Jaguars are lurking
- Ravens (7-8, 15%): Need help and wins to sneak in
NFC (2 spots remaining):
- Packers (9-5-1, 75%): Wild card race with one tie complicating things
- Panthers (8-7, 65%): Lead NFC South despite -14.4% DVOA - a testament to the division's weakness
- Buccaneers (7-8, 35%): Week 18 rematch with Carolina could decide everything
- Lions (8-7, 19%): Fading fast at +28.4% DVOA - a classic "better than record" team
How Our Oracle Uses This Data
Our NFL Oracle incorporates DVOA and SRS as its secret 7th factor - a hidden efficiency metric that adjusts predictions beyond the visible 6-factor analysis. When DVOA says a team is significantly better or worse than their record, that creates betting value.
Example: If Detroit (28.4% DVOA) faces Carolina (-14.4% DVOA), the 43-point DVOA gap suggests the Lions should be heavy favorites - regardless of their similar 8-7 records.
Week 17 Games to Watch
- Seahawks at Rams (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): #1 vs #2 DVOA. This could decide NFC home-field advantage
- Steelers at Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): AFC North title implications
- Packers vs Vikings (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): NFC North and wild card race
- Panthers at Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): NFC South preview before Week 18 decider
Check our full Power Rankings page for all 32 teams with DVOA, SRS, Expected Wins, and playoff probabilities updated weekly.
Disclaimer
All predictions and analysis are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.