Wild Card Weekend is here. January 10-12, 2026 brings us six games that will shape the entire playoff picture. With the Seahawks and Broncos on bye as the #1 seeds, the remaining 12 teams battle for their postseason lives.
Our algorithmic models have been crunching the numbers all week. Here is the game-by-game breakdown with current spreads, totals, and where we see value.
Saturday, January 10
Rams (-10.5) at Panthers | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
The Rams are massive road favorites against a Panthers team that limped into the playoffs at 8-9 with a -69 point differential. Carolina is the third-worst division champion by point differential since 1970.
Key factors:
- LA has the experience edge with Matthew Stafford in his fourth playoff run
- Bryce Young is making his first playoff start
- Panthers needed Atlanta to lose just to get in
- Rams secondary vs. Young = pressure opportunities
Algorithmic lean: Rams -10.5 is steep, but the talent gap is real. Look at Rams team total OVER if available.
Packers (-1.5) at Bears | 8:00 PM ET | Prime Video
A classic rivalry gets the primetime Saturday slot. Green Bay enters as a slight favorite despite playing on the road against a Bears team fighting to prove they belong.
Key factors:
- Jordan Love has playoff experience from last year
- Caleb Williams in his first playoff game - historically first-time playoff QBs underperform by 0.5-1 points
- January in Chicago means weather could be a factor
- Models show Over 212.5 passing yards for Williams has value
Algorithmic lean: This is a coin flip. Our models give a slight edge to Packers -1.5 based on playoff QB experience.
Sunday, January 11
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville closed the regular season on an 8-game winning streak, covering in all 8 games and averaging 33.6 points. Buffalo has the better overall record but faces a hot team at home.
Key factors:
- Jaguars momentum is real - 8 straight covers
- Josh Allen vs. Trevor Lawrence combined for 77 total TDs this season
- Total set at 52.5 reflects expected shootout
- Home underdog with momentum = historical value spot
Algorithmic lean: Jaguars +1.5 at home with this momentum streak is intriguing. Also like OVER 52.5.
49ers at Eagles (-3.5) | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
Philadelphia is defending their Super Bowl title and looking to become the first NFC team in 31 years to repeat. San Francisco knows the Eagles well - these teams have met in big spots before.
Key factors:
- Eagles seeking back-to-back titles - only 2 QBs in playoffs with rings (Hurts and Rodgers)
- 49ers are 7-2 ATS on the road this season
- Brock Purdy playoff experience from Super Bowl run
- Divisional familiarity in NFC Championship rematches historically favors underdogs ATS
Algorithmic lean: 49ers +3.5 is the contrarian play. SF road ATS record is hard to ignore.
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5) | 8:00 PM ET | NBC
New England went from 4-13 last year to 14-3 this season - tied for the best year-over-year improvement in NFL history. Drake Maye emerged as an MVP candidate and Mike Vrabel transformed this team.
Key factors:
- Patriots are 13-1 in their last 14 games
- Maye is the youngest QB in NFL history to lead in completion % and yards per attempt
- Did NE face the easiest strength of schedule since 1999 Rams? Now they face a real test
- Chargers have talent but consistency questions
Algorithmic lean: Patriots -3.5 at home with Vrabel coaching in the playoffs is the pick.
Monday, January 12
Texans (-2.5) at Steelers | 8:00 PM ET | ABC/ESPN
The Monday night finale features Houston as a road favorite against a Steelers team led by 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers in what could be his final NFL season.
Key factors:
- Rodgers had a vintage Q4 performance in Week 18 - 11-of-14, 133 yards, game-winning TD vs. Ravens
- Pittsburgh won the AFC North 26-24 after Ravens kicker missed game-winning FG
- CJ Stroud vs. Rodgers is the experience vs. youth matchup of the weekend
- Steelers playoff atmosphere at home is legendary
Algorithmic lean: The Steelers +2.5 at home in primetime with Rodgers Last Dance narrative is compelling.
Quick Reference: All Wild Card Picks
| Game | Spread | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Rams @ Panthers | LA -10.5 | Rams TT Over |
| Packers @ Bears | GB -1.5 | Packers -1.5 |
| Bills @ Jaguars | BUF -1.5 | Jaguars +1.5, Over |
| 49ers @ Eagles | PHI -3.5 | 49ers +3.5 |
| Chargers @ Patriots | NE -3.5 | Patriots -3.5 |
| Texans @ Steelers | HOU -2.5 | Steelers +2.5 |
Looking Ahead: Divisional Round Trends
Winners this weekend advance to the Divisional Round on January 17-18 where they will face the #1 seeds (Seahawks in NFC, Broncos in AFC). Historical trends show:
- Road underdogs +3.5 to +9.5 cover at 60.5% in divisional round
- Home teams scoring 27+ points are 72.7% ATS
- Teams off bye week (top seeds) are only 46% ATS historically
Wild Card winners often carry momentum into divisional matchups while top seeds deal with rust.
Check our NFL Oracle for real-time algorithmic predictions on all playoff games. Our models update daily with the latest injury reports, weather forecasts, and line movements.