CFB ORACLE · 2026-10-17

Arkansas St vs Southern Miss Prediction

Scheduled for Sat Oct 17 7:00 PM.

💎 VALUE BET

VALUE BET: Take Southern Miss +6.5

60.2% model estimate, not a calibrated probability

Factors behind this estimate

Weights are normalized across available inputs. Missing factors have no weight; this estimate is not a guarantee.

Recent results · 21.0% weight
Southern Miss: Last 5: 3-2; Arkansas St: Last 5: 1-4
Injuries · Not used
Injury report unavailable for one or both teams
Home field · 26.0% weight
Baseline home-field adjustment for Southern Miss
Market line · 15.3% weight
ESPN: Arkansas St -6.5
Kickoff weather · 5.6% weight
OpenWeather: 51°F, 0 mph wind
Current-season efficiency · 11.2% weight
ESPN offensive yards/play: Southern Miss 5.01, Arkansas St 4.80 (not opponent-adjusted SP+)
Independent matchup strength · 20.9% weight
ESPN FPI: Southern Miss +15.1, Arkansas St +1.3

No exact matchup market is currently listed